Russian agriculture consultancy Sovecon on Tuesday said it had cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports by 1.3 million tonnes to 37.1 million tonnes in the current 2021/22 marketing season, which started on July 1.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, supplying mainly to Africa and the Middle East with the European Union as its main competitor, but this year’s harvesting has been delayed by rainy weather.
The forecast was reduced after Sovecon cut its estimate for Russia’s 2021 crop to 82.3 million tonnes this month, it said in a note.
The slow pace of exports from Russia in July is an additional factor, Sovecon said. It expects the country to export 1.9 million tonnes of wheat in July, the lowest level for that month since 2017.
Russia’s wheat export tax, which is subject to weekly reassessment by the agriculture ministry, remains an additional hurdle for exports, Sovecon said.
“The domestic wheat market is relatively firm despite the pressure of the new harvest and a large carry-in stockpile,” SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov said in a note.
“Many farmers still prefer to postpone sales, hoping that the current export tax could be lifted in several months. In our view, this looks like wishful thinking but it does slow down exports.”
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Polina Devitt Editing by Alison Williams and David Goodman)