The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour projected average US corn yields for the marketing year 2021-22 (September-August) at 177 bushels/acre, significantly higher than US Department of Agriculture’s latest forecast of 174.6 bu/acre, S&P Global Platts Analytics said Aug. 23.
The USDA recently lowered its US corn yield estimate from previously forecast 179.5 bu/acre on account of extreme dryness in parts of the Midwest.
The Crop Tour, however, has estimated the yield numbers to be higher as some surveyed states recorded exceptionally impressive ear counts, Platts Analytics said in a report.
“Pro Farmer’s interpretation of the corn data pointed to a 177 bu/acre national yield, a number that Platts Analytics finds little fault with based on the ear counts,” Platts Analytics said. “Going into Crop Tour, Platts Analytics had pegged US corn yield at 178.5 bu/acre. Coming out of Crop Tour our opinion has not really changed much.”
The tour measures corn yield based on counting the number of ears in 30 feet on two different rows. Typically, this number is between 90 and 100 ears, but this year they were much higher, Platts Analytics said.
In Iowa — the largest corn producing state — this year’s ear count averaged 102.3, up 5.6% from last year and 3.3% higher than the three-year average, it said. Average ear count was also higher in the second largest producing state, Illinois, the report added. The two states have planted 24.3 million corn acres in 2021-22, or 26.2% of the US total.
“2021 was a year that saw fields on tour look bad from the road, but better inside, a phenomenon that flies in the face of the typical convention that fields always look better from the road,” Platts Analytics said. “To be honest, we too wondered how in certain western areas the corn crop could be “this good” given all it had been through.”
The western Midwest had been most affected by the prolonged dryness in the region. Among these states, Minnesota was very dry; however, ear count was still pretty good, so despite smaller ears the yield was still around 190 bu/acre, Platts Analytics said.
“The reason for the high ear count in our opinion is the fact that the corn was planted in perfect conditions and was completed very early in the growing season,” it said. “This has led to very high emergence rates throughout every state on [the] Crop Tour.”
Source: Platts