Brazilian farmers will harvest just under 94 million tonnes of corn this season, a Reuters poll of ten forecasters indicated on Tuesday, a fall of 8.5% from the last due to a severe drought.

Crop failure will lead to higher imports and lower exports of the cereal, the forecasters suggested, as Brazil, home to some of the world’s largest meat processors, needs it to make livestock feed.

Daniely Santos, an analyst with agribusiness consultancy Celeres, cut her 2021 corn export forecast to 22.5 million tonnes from 32 million tonnes, and told Reuters she estimates Brazilian corn imports at 4 million tonnes.

If dry weather persists, corn yields may fall further in states such as Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, a weather specialist said.

Last year Brazilian farmers collected 102.58 million tonnes of corn, according to government estimates.

In April, a Reuters poll of 11 forecasters showed the possibility of a record corn crop of 107 million tonnes, but poor weather during the development stage hurt that prospect.

Brazil’s second corn crop, which is planted after soybeans are harvested at the end of the country’s summer, was the most hit by a lack of rainfall.

Agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado had initially pegged Brazil’s second corn crop at 84 million tonnes, only to slash that forecast to below 71 million tonnes a few weeks into the season.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nayara Figueiredo; Writing by Ana Mano; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Jan Harvey)