To support growing investor and industry interest in the now extremely profitable container shipping sector, Drewry will introduce in its flagship, end-September edition of Container Forecaster a new ’Container Carrier Industry Maturity and Risk’ matrix, looking at the fundamental characteristics and changing risk profile of the carrier industry.
The Container Carrier Industry Maturity and Risk matrix, which forms part of Drewry’s long-established Container Forecaster product, identifies and tracks major industry drivers and trends, categorised under 3 main headings:
1. A slower-growth, more mature, less over-supplied industry
Looking at areas such as nominal vs actual global and East-West capacity, the supply-demand balance and demand growth.
2. A more consolidated, less speculative, more profitable industry
Looking at topics such as carrier profit margins, asset prices, freight rates, industry consolidation levels and the relative orderbook.
3. An industry more in the public eye
Looking at development such as CO2 emissions and total industry bunker consumption.
For each category, the Drewry Container Forecaster identifies the major changes underway – using a traffic light system, showing which ones are favourable or adverse to ocean carriers – and the key risks and opportunities for carriers – whether market-driven or regulatory.
According to Drewry estimates, in the first half of 2021, ocean carriers and tonnage providers ordered a record US$20.1 billion worth of new containerships.
Simon Heaney, senior manager, container research at Drewry, said: “At the time of writing in mid-September 2021, total year-to-date new vessel orders stood at 3.9 million teu, which with more than three months of year remaining, has already surpassed the previous annual record of 3.3m teu set in 2007.”
The number of companies with licences to access the Drewry Container Forecaster annual subscription service has increased by 27% between the first half of 2020 and the first half of this year, further highlighting the growing interest in the container shipping sector.
Addressing one of the current industry risks for carriers, Arjun Batra, group managing director of Drewry, said at the recent Marine Money conference in Singapore that industry players looking to buy new vessels at current prices will likely find themselves “overextended”.