The global seaborne coal trade is slowly showing signs of a recovery after a difficult 2020 and to a lesser extent first half of 2021. In a recent weekly note, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv. In 2021 so far things were still very bad, but we are seeing increasing signs of things returning back to “normal”.
According to the shipbroker, “in the first 6 months of 2021, global seaborne coal trade declined by -0.5% y-o-y to 577.0 mln tonnes. However, the worst was in the first quarter, as 1Q 2021 recorded a -8.8% y-o-y decline to 278.2 mln t. Things have steadily improved month after month. In June 2021 global coal trade increased to 101.9 mln t, which was +8.1% y-o-y compared to June 2020, and the highest monthly figure since March 2020. However, this was still down -6.6% from June 2019. In the second quarter of 2021 as a whole, global coal loadings reached 298.9 mln tonnes, which was +8.6% y-o-y compared to 2Q 2020”.
Source: banchero costa &c s.p.a.
Banchero Costa focuses on India, which is the second largest importer of coal in the world, just after Mainland China. “In 2020, India accounted for 17.0% of global seaborne coal shipments. India’s seaborne coal imports in the 12 months of 2020 declined by -11.4% y-o-y to 186.0 mln tonnes. This was a larger decline than what was recorded in Mainland China ( -8.2% y-o-y), Japan (-4.0% y-o-y), and Taiwan (-9.0% y-o-y), but less than in the European Union (-32.4% y-o-y) and in South Korea (-16.2% y-o-y). When it comes to India, the worst last year was in the second and third quarters. In 1Q 2020, India imported 55.1 mln tonnes of coal, which was a positive +7.2% y-o-y increase. In 2Q 2020, imports collapsed to 35.7 mln tonnes, down -40.4% y-o-y, as the country implemented a strict lockdown which affected even port discharging operations. In 3Q 2020, imports to India rebounded to 41.5 mln tonnes, which was an improvement compared to the second quarter, but still down -12.6% y-o-y. In 4Q 2020, imports surged upwards to 53.7 mln tonnes, +5.0% y-o-y. Things softened again a bit in the first quarter of 2021, with India importing 48.0 mln tonnes of coal, which was a -13.0% y-o-y decline from the very high levels of 1Q 2020”.
The shipbroker added that “the second quarter of 2021 was again very positive, with 55.3 mln tonnes, up +54.9% y-o-y from the (very poor, lockdown affected) second quarter of last year. Most importantly, this was the best quarter since the pre-Covid 1Q 2020. April 2021 and May 2021 were particulalry positive, with 18.9 mln tonnes (+20.4% y-o-y) and 19.0 mln tonnes (+73.8% y-o-y). May 2021 was indeed the best monthly figure since May 2019. In June 2021 things cooled down a little to 17.4 mln tonnes, which was though still +92.2% up from the terrible 9.1 mln tonnes in June 2020. In terms of sources of coal imports to India, things changed a bit.
Source: banchero costa &c s.p.a.
Australia has now emerged as the top coal exporter to India, as they had to divert the cargoes that in the past they would have sold to China. Imports to India from Australia increased by +120.3% y-o-y to 39.4 mln t in the first 6 months of 2021, from 17.9 mln tonnes in the same period of 2020. Australia now accounts for 38% of India’s coal imports. The second largest source for Indian coal imports is Indonesia, accounting for a 30% share. This is down from a 39% share in the first half of 2020. Shipments from Indonesia to India declined by -11.6% y-o-y to 31.1 mln tonnes in the first 6 months of 2021, from 35.2 mln tonnes in the same period of 2020. Volumes from South Africa to India also declined by -12.1% y-o-y to 14.8 mln tonnes so far this year”, Banchero Costa concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide