South Korea’s exports are expected to have expanded for a 10th straight month, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, supported by robust demand for key items, even as the resurgence in coronavirus weighed on business sentiment.
Outbound shipments in August were seen growing 35.7% from a year earlier, the median forecast in a poll of 14 economists showed, accelerating from a 29.6% expansion seen in July.
“Exports will be supported by strong imports from advanced economies, memory chip demand, and seasonal demand for certain key items, which will help cushion near-term headwinds from softer regional demand and coronavirus-related supply disruptions,” said Lloyd Chan of Oxford Economics.
Data from last week showed exports for the first 20 days of the month jumped 40.9% year-on-year, with those of semiconductors, petroleum products and cars surging 39.8%, 55.3% and 37.0%, respectively.
Economists, however, worry that the impact from the fast-spreading Delta variant across the region may weigh on the manufacturing-heavy economy.
“Export growth may slow gradually going forward, given that the resurgence in COVID-19 may weaken business sentiment and demand for durable goods, and disrupt the supply chain further,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Financial Investment.
Monday’s poll also forecast South Korea’s total imports to have risen 46.4% year on year, faster than a 38.1% increase in July and set for the sharpest growth since May 2010.
Full month trade data will be released on Wednesday at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).
In the same poll, 15 economists separately predicted that consumer prices this month would rise 2.3% from a year earlier, down from a 2.6% increase marked in July but still staying above the central bank’s 2%-target for a fifth month in a row.
Some 10 economists also estimated that industrial output in July would have shrank a median 0.1% month-on-month, sharply reversing a 2.2% expansion seen in June.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Joori Roh; Additional reporting by Vivek Mishra, Shaloo Shrivastava, Md Manzer Hussain in Bangalore and Jihoon Lee in Seoul; Editing by Hugh Lawson)