UK gas-Prices fall on expectations of higher supply

British wholesale gas prices eased on Wednesday on expectations of rising supplies the next day even though the gas system was slightly under-supplied.

The day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 fell by 1.40 pence to 68.60 pence per therm by 0913 GMT.

The within-day contract TRGBNBPWKD was down 0.25 pence at 69.50 p/therm.

The system was slightly undersupplied, with demand forecast at 115.5 million cubic metres (mcm), well below the seasonal norm, and supply at 112 mcm/day, National Grid data showed.

Norwegian gas supplies through the Langeled pipeline halved to 12 mcm/day from Tuesday.

Gas flows, however, were expected to rise on Thursday as gas is re-routed from continental Europe to Britain due to planned maintenance at the Dunkirk terminal in France, analysts at Refinitiv said.

An unplanned outage at Norway’s gas processing plant Kaarstoe was also expected to end on Thursday.

UK domestic production was 5 mcm lower than the previous day at 60 mcm/day as gas supplies via Teesside CATS dropped to 8 mcm/day from 14 mcm/day due to maintenance at the Culzean field.

Peak wind generation is forecast at 8.2 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday and 3.4 GW on Thursday, out of total metered capacity of around 18 GW, Elexon data showed.

The Dutch July contract at the TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 was down 0.13 euro to 27.85 euros per megawatt hour, after losing nearly 1.00 euro the previous day due to softer EU carbon prices.

“The carbon move yesterday possibly spooked existing longs, but fundamentals are still tight and not easing up in any meaningful way,” a London-based analyst said, referring to falling prompt gas prices.

The benchmark Dec-21 EU carbon contract CFI2Zc1 continued to fall on Thursday and was down 0.38 euros at 51.02 euros a tonne.

The UK Dec-21 carbon contract UKAFMc1 was 0.30 pounds lower at 44.20 pounds per tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis in Oslo, editing by Nina Chestney)

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