The U.S. Department of Agriculture hosted its biannual data users’ meeting virtually on Wednesday and Thursday, and although the mood of the audience seemed more mellow as compared with some past years, a few items are worth noting.
One thing that stood out was the closure of USDA’s offices in Russia. That happened Aug. 1 when U.S. diplomatic presence there was dramatically reduced amid rising tensions between Washington and Moscow.
Russia is the top wheat exporter and global wheat prices have reached multiyear highs, so the timing is unfortunate.
Officials admitted the closure “hurt,” but they were confident they could still provide reliable estimates for Russia. They also hoped this closure would be temporary pending improved relations. USDA’s foreign staff cover about 180 countries and enhance the agency’s global market intelligence.
The data users’ meeting can get heated during periods when USDA’s forecasts deviate sharply from market expectations, particularly when the numbers come in much heavier. The most recent instance was the Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks that landed well above the range of estimates.
U.S. grain stocks came up many times during this week’s event, but the main takeaway was that all the adjustments made – in this case, an increase of last year’s soybean crop – are a result of the surveyed stocks data. In other words, the Sept. 1 stocks data drove the revision to production, not the other way around.
I asked about China’s corn imports and why USDA’s official estimates reflect a much smaller year-on-year decline into 2022 than most other outlooks, including that of USDA’s Beijing office.
China became the leading corn importer last year, and USDA believes that will continue to be the case due to sufficient production in top suppliers Ukraine and the United States. USDA officials also mentioned Beijing seems increasingly comfortable with relying on imports, something it avoided in the past.
USDA’s hesitation to increase China’s corn imports headlined the year-ago meeting, though this time the agency said China’s low-tariff corn quota is clearly no longer a constraint when it comes to imports. USDA’s projections for Chinese corn imports are more than three times the official quota.
Questions also came up about publication of U.S. acreage registration data from the Farm Service Agency (FSA), which has been inconsistent this fall. An update was due Oct. 12, but the dataset is delayed. An FSA representative said that the data could come “any day now.”
USDA’s statistics branch (NASS) was asked whether the latest FSA acreage data was able to be considered for the Oct. 12 Crop Production report, and the answer was yes, NASS has real-time access to those figures despite the delay to the public.
Last month’s FSA acreage data was inadvertently posted to the website two days before the due date, allowing analysts early access to critical input data for the next U.S. crop production update.
I asked FSA during the meeting how this happened and if anything has been done since to prevent another occurrence, and agency representatives were unable to comment.
Key tables from the long-term agricultural projections, published in full each February, will be released on Nov. 5. Among the top items analysts will seek are the preliminary 2022 U.S. planted area figures.
USDA will host its annual Ag Outlook Forum Feb. 24-25, 2022, and although it is currently planned as a virtual event, officials said there could be an in-person component pending the pandemic status.
Source: Reuters