A warm, dry spell in western Europe this week should let wheat farmers catch up on harvesting but heavy summer rain has already hurt crop yields and quality, analysts and traders said.
French analyst firm Strategie Grains on Thursday cut its monthly forecast of the European Union’s soft wheat crop, which it said could contribute to an “explosive” global supply outlook.
In France, farmers in northern plains are expected to speed through harvesting this week before showers may return on Monday.
“There are some people who’ll be doing their third round of harvesting since July,” a French trader said. “We all hope it gets finished but it could be tough before the next rain.”
Strategie Grains reduced its estimate of the French crop to 37 million tonnes, bringing it closer to the farm ministry’s current estimate of 36.7 million tonnes.
French output is still seen well above last year’s poor crop of around 29 million tonnes, but grain quality has emerged as more of a setback this year.
The wet summer has led to weak readings for test weights as well as varied results for Hagberg falling numbers, among key measures of wheat’s suitability for milling.
The share of the French crop of milling standard was now seen at just over two-thirds compared with nearly 90% last year, Strategie Grains estimated.
In Germany, about two-thirds of the crop has been gathered, with much work still to do in northern export-reliant regions.
“Quality, especially test weights, has suffered from the rain, one German grains analyst said. “But I do not think Germany is facing the same difficulties as in France and overall quality in Germany is still reasonable.”
Forecasters have cut German production estimates due to rain. Some analysts now see the crop between 22 million and 22.5 million tonnes, below the farm cooperatives association’s 22.8 million estimate in mid-July.
In Poland, prospects were also less favourable.
Sparks Polska now estimates wheat production at 11.9 million tonnes, down from the 12.1 million projected in July and 12.0 million harvested in 2020, the analyst firm said, citing lower than expected yields.
Heavy rain was expected to lead to a smaller share of milling wheat than last year, with concerns centred on test weights and falling numbers, Sparks Polska’s Wojtek Sabaranski said.
“It seems likely that in the present season there will be a premium paid to wheat with high quality parameters.”
Quality fears were focused on the south, where heavy rain meant harvesting was not even half complete, Sabaranski said, adding quality was better in the west and north where field work was nearly over.
Repeated rain has also hampered Britain’s wheat harvest.
“We are yet to get into the bulk of the wheat harvest, but the availability of quality grain will remain a concern,” CRM Agri analyst Peter Collier said.
Forecasters have been expecting the British crop to rise by about half from last year’s low level to 14.5 million to 14.8 million tonnes, driven by a recovery in planted area.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Nigel Hunt in London; editing by David Evans)